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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

22-12  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Mar 25 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

25-11  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
REDBIRDS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Dayton)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

18.4%

Flyers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

ILST By 1-7 points

12.2%

ILST By 8-14 points

4.0%

DAY By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
61
ILLINOIS STATE
70
DAYTON
Simulated Score
62
ILLINOIS STATE
78
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 ILST @ DAY 61 - 55
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Dayton: 38.4% vs Illinois State: 32.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Dayton: 47.2% vs Illinois State: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 61.0 61
DAY Score 70.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 32.0 12.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.7 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 41.8 30.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 76.7 74.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 33.2 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.9 8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 8.9 5.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
ILST
DAY
ILST
ML
65% 24-13
42% 15-21
64% 23-13
71% 24-10
ATS
68% 25-12
58% 21-15
64% 23-13
71% 24-10
TTL
57% 21-16
58% 21-15
100% 36-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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