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MINNESOTA

WILDMIN

40-19-12  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Mar 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

43-21-5  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Filip Gustavsson
GOALTENDER

Filip Gustavsson

#32 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Filip Gustavsson None-None 4.12 0.833 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.03 0.875 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.12 GAA Ldr 3.03
0.833 Save % Ldr 0.875
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
WILD --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
WildMIN (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wild Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MIN By 1 goal

12.1%

MIN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MINNESOTA
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 3 - 6
Mar 3, 2026 TB @ MIN 1 - 5
Nov 1, 2024 TB @ MIN 3 - 5
Oct 24, 2024 MIN @ TB 4 - 2
Jan 18, 2024 MIN @ TB 3 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.3%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Minnesota: 2.2%
Takeaways (L5) +25.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.8 vs Minnesota: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5) +2.6%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Minnesota: 47.2%
Hits (L5) +38.8% more
Minnesota: 27.6 vs Tampa Bay: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.0 3
TB Score 3.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
30%MONEY70%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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