Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Suns DEN @ PHX

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

44-28  |  Road

125
FINAL
Tue, Mar 24 • 11:00 PM ET
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View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

40-32  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
NUGGETS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

84.1%

Suns Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

23.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

27.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

10.7%

PHX By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
DENVER
103
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
112
DENVER
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nuggets (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 DEN @ PHX 125 - 123
Nov 29, 2025 DEN @ PHX 130 - 112
Oct 25, 2025 PHX @ DEN 111 - 133
Mar 7, 2025 PHX @ DEN 141 - 149
Feb 8, 2025 DEN @ PHX 122 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Denver: 32.7 vs Phoenix: 25.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
Denver: 51.8% vs Phoenix: 46.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Denver: 41.2% vs Phoenix: 39.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Denver: 82.2% vs Phoenix: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 113.0 125
PHX Score 103.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 41.2 36.0 / 41.0
Assists 25.3 / 32.7 24.0 / 35.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 51.8 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 82.2 76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 43.1 41.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.3 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 12.6 3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
DEN
PHX
DEN
ML
57% 60-45
54% 57-48
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
ATS
58% 59-43-3
63% 65-38-2
51% 45-43
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 61-42-2
54% 56-48-1
100% 88-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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