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SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

24-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Tue, Mar 24 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

25-10  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
LOBOS
100%
HAWKS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
HawksJOES (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

88.5%

Lobos Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)

JOES By 1-7 points

20.1%

JOES By 8-14 points

27.2%

UNM By 1-7 points

8.0%

UNM By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
81
SAINT JOSEPH'S
69
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
70
SAINT JOSEPH'S
85
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 JOES @ UNM 69 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
Saint Joseph's: 10.6 vs New Mexico: 8.7
Steals (L5) +83.3% more
New Mexico: 9.7 vs Saint Joseph's: 5.3
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
New Mexico: 4.1 vs Saint Joseph's: 3.2
Assists (L5) +18.9% more
New Mexico: 18.1 vs Saint Joseph's: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JOES Score 81.0 69
UNM Score 69.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 34.0 30.0 / 27.0
Assists 18.1 / 15.3 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 42.9 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 64.1 79.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 41.0 / 41.1 40.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.7 / 5.3 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 10.6 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
JOES
UNM
JOES
ML
57% 21-16
51% 18-17
74% 25-9
61% 20-13
ATS
57% 21-16
60% 21-14
74% 25-9
61% 20-13
TTL
41% 15-22
54% 19-16
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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