Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pistons LAL @ DET

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

46-25  |  Road

110
FINAL
Mon, Mar 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

51-19  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
PISTONS
0%
LAKERS --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Detroit)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

13.6%

Pistons Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

LAL By 1-7 points

9.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

2.7%

DET By 1-7 points

21.6%

DET By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
104
LOS ANGELES
115
DETROIT
Simulated Score
105
LOS ANGELES
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pistons (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 LAL @ DET 110 - 113
Dec 30, 2025 DET @ LAL 128 - 106
Dec 23, 2024 DET @ LAL 117 - 114
Nov 4, 2024 LAL @ DET 103 - 115
Feb 13, 2024 DET @ LAL 111 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.0% more
Detroit: 30.1 vs Los Angeles: 23.4
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Detroit: 11.6 vs Los Angeles: 9.5
Blocks (L5) +10.3% more
Detroit: 5.5 vs Los Angeles: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Detroit: 75.2% vs Los Angeles: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 104.0 110
DET Score 115.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 34.8 42.0 / 28.0
Assists 30.1 / 23.4 31.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.5 / 5.0 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 50.3 45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 70.6 92.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 41.6 37.0 / 39.0
Steals 11.6 / 9.5 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 12.7 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
DET
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
LAL
DET
LAL
ML
55% 64-53
61% 68-43
49% 47-49
54% 49-42
ATS
53% 60-54-3
61% 67-43-1
49% 47-49
54% 49-42
TTL
60% 70-46-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 96-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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