Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ 76ers OKC @ PHI

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

56-15  |  Road

123
FINAL
Mon, Mar 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

39-32  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
76ERS
100%
THUNDER --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

95.5%

76ers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

12.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.0%

PHI By 1-7 points

3.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
97
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+16) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u227.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 OKC @ PHI 123 - 103
Dec 28, 2025 PHI @ OKC 104 - 129
Mar 19, 2025 PHI @ OKC 100 - 133
Jan 14, 2025 OKC @ PHI 118 - 102
Apr 2, 2024 OKC @ PHI 105 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7 vs Philadelphia: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Oklahoma City: 35.9% vs Philadelphia: 28.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Oklahoma City: 49.7% vs Philadelphia: 47.4%
Blocks (L5) +48.9% more
Philadelphia: 7.5 vs Oklahoma City: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 114.0 123
PHI Score 97.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 35.9 37.0 / 44.0
Assists 26.7 / 26.4 29.0 / 33.0
Blocks 7.5 / 5.1 3.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 49.7 44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 85.0 / 78.3 44.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 49.0 / 48.6 44.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.7 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 13.1 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
OKC
PHI
OKC
ML
63% 69-40
70% 80-34
48% 45-48
48% 46-49
ATS
65% 71-38
73% 83-30-1
48% 45-48
48% 46-49
TTL
55% 60-49
67% 76-38
100% 93-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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