Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Hawks MEM @ ATL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

24-46  |  Road

107
FINAL
Mon, Mar 23 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

39-32  |  Home

146
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Atlanta)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

27.4%

Hawks Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

MEM By 1-7 points

16.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

6.8%

ATL By 1-7 points

26.8%

ATL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
110
MEMPHIS
116
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
115
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.5 Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 MEM @ ATL 107 - 146
Jan 21, 2026 ATL @ MEM 124 - 122
Oct 11, 2025 ATL @ MEM 122 - 116
Mar 3, 2025 ATL @ MEM 132 - 130
Dec 21, 2024 MEM @ ATL 128 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.2% more
Atlanta: 4.9 vs Memphis: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.6% more
Atlanta: 15.6 vs Memphis: 12.6
Assists (L5) +23.3% more
Atlanta: 28.4 vs Memphis: 23.0
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
Atlanta: 42.8 vs Memphis: 37.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 110.0 107
ATL Score 116.0 146
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 34.7 46.0 / 33.0
Assists 28.4 / 23.0 37.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.7 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 43.7 53.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 79.3 92.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 37.1 44.0 / 34.0
Steals 10.2 / 9.5 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 12.6 11.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MEM
ATL
MEM
ML
50% 52-52
57% 59-44
55% 48-40
50% 41-41
ATS
53% 55-48-1
63% 65-38
55% 48-40
50% 41-41
TTL
53% 55-48-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 88-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 4 hours ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 9 hours, 40 minutes ago
Hawks Look to Bounce Back Against Spurs in Preseason Clash
si 1 day, 3 hours ago
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
actionnews5 1 day, 3 hours ago
Zach Edey to Sit Out Grizzlies' Preseason Opener vs. Hawks, Team…
yahoo 3 days, 3 hours ago