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INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-56  |  Road

128
FINAL
Mon, Mar 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

38-32  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
PACERS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

98.2%

Magic Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

6.8%

IND By 8-14 points

16.9%

ORL By 1-7 points

1.4%

ORL By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
INDIANA
101
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
109
INDIANA
116
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Magic (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.0 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 IND @ ORL 128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ ORL 127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025 ORL @ IND 112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025 ORL @ IND 129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024 IND @ ORL 90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.3% more
Indiana: 4.6 vs Orlando: 2.8
Assists (L5) +23.5% more
Indiana: 32.7 vs Orlando: 25.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Indiana: 42.4% vs Orlando: 32.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Indiana: 49.9% vs Orlando: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 122.0 128
ORL Score 101.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 42.4 35.0 / 46.0
Assists 25.0 / 32.7 29.0 / 32.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.6 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 49.9 51.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 87.1 / 80.1 75.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 34.9 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.6 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 13.1 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
IND
ORL
IND
ML
61% 65-42
48% 47-50
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
ATS
64% 68-38-1
59% 57-40
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
TTL
57% 61-46
54% 52-45
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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