TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
39-30 | Road
98
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
39-32 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
SUNS
100%
RAPTORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-7 points
25.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
26.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
13.7%
PHX By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
119
TORONTO
Phoenix
111
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Phoenix
109
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Raptors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.0
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
TOR @ PHX
98 - 120
Mar 13, 2026
PHX @ TOR
115 - 122
Mar 17, 2025
TOR @ PHX
89 - 129
Feb 23, 2025
PHX @ TOR
109 - 127
Mar 7, 2024
TOR @ PHX
113 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.2% more
Toronto: 12.8
vs
Phoenix: 11.3
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Toronto: 29.0
vs
Phoenix: 25.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Toronto: 78.7%
vs
Phoenix: 70.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Toronto: 51.0%
vs
Phoenix: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
119.0
98
PHX Score
111.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 35.7
45.0 / 33.0
Assists
25.9 / 29.0
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.9
6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 51.0
52.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 78.7
100.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
40.2 / 41.9
43.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.4 / 8.0
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 12.8
19.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
TOR
PHX
TOR
ML
57%
60-45
55%
57-47
51%
45-43
55%
48-39
ATS
58%
59-43-3
61%
62-40-2
51%
45-43
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
61-42-2
60%
62-42
100%
88-0
100%
87-0
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