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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

43-21-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Saddledome
View Odds Details →

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

28-34-7  |  Home

4
Goaltending
J.J. Moser
GOALTENDER

J.J. Moser

#90 | Defense
@
Devin Cooley
GOALTENDER

Devin Cooley

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
J.J. Moser None-None -- -- --
Devin Cooley None-None 2.98 0.914 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.98
-- Save % 0.914
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
FLAMES
100%
LIGHTNING --
FLAMES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 FlamesCGY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Flames Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CGY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

CGY By 1 goal

12.1%

CGY By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
CALGARY
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
5
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flames (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 TB @ CGY 3 - 4
Nov 26, 2025 CGY @ TB 1 - 5
Feb 27, 2025 CGY @ TB 0 - 3
Dec 12, 2024 TB @ CGY 8 - 3
Mar 7, 2024 CGY @ TB 6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +30.3%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Calgary: 1.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +18.5% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Calgary: 27.1
Takeaways (L5) +17.2% more
Calgary: 5.4 vs Tampa Bay: 4.6
Faceoff % (L5) +9.3%
Calgary: 59.1% vs Tampa Bay: 49.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 3
CGY Score 2.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
85%MONEY15%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
TB
CGY
TB
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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