PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
35-36 | Road
112
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
43-28 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
POR By 1-7 points
10.7%
POR By 8-14 points
3.3%
DEN By 1-7 points
23.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
107
PORTLAND
Denver
117
DENVER
Simulated Score
Portland
108
PORTLAND
Denver
120
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u238.0
Loss
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u238.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 6, 2026
POR @ DEN
132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026
POR @ DEN
112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026
DEN @ POR
157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025
DEN @ POR
107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025
DEN @ POR
109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.0%
Denver: 42.2%
vs
Portland: 32.2%
Assists (L5)
+9.1% more
Denver: 30.5
vs
Portland: 28.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Denver: 50.7%
vs
Portland: 44.7%
Blocks (L5)
+51.4% more
Portland: 6.6
vs
Denver: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
107.0
112
DEN Score
117.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 32.2
39.0 / 32.0
Assists
30.5 / 28.0
37.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.2 / 6.6
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 44.7
54.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.2 / 80.6
92.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.7 / 49.1
42.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 17.0
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
POR
DEN
POR
ML
54%
57-48
53%
56-49
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
ATS
63%
65-38-2
62%
65-39-1
55%
47-39
55%
49-40
TTL
54%
56-48-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
89-0
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