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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

31-25-14  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 7:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

43-15-11  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
@
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Adin Hill None-None 2.00 0.867 --
Casey DeSmith None-None 3.13 0.909 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.13
0.867 Save % Ldr 0.909
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

VGK By 1 goal

12.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VEGAS
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
4
VEGAS
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Knights Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Knights (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 VGK @ DAL 3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026 VGK @ DAL 1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026 DAL @ VGK 5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025 DAL @ VGK 4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025 VGK @ DAL 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +27.8% more
Dallas: 4.2 vs Vegas: 3.3
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
Dallas: 23.8 vs Vegas: 20.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.0% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Vegas: 14.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.0% more
Dallas: 29.9 vs Vegas: 26.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 2.0 3
DAL Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
57%MONEY43%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
VGK
DAL
VGK
ML
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
TTL
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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