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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

44-19-6  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 3:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

35-18-16  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Sean Walker
GOALTENDER

Sean Walker

#26 | Defense
@
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Sean Walker None-None -- -- --
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
HURRICANES --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
HurricanesCAR (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

30.9%

Penguins Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

CAR By 1 goal

12.1%

CAR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

PIT By 1 goal

19.7%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CAROLINA
6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
CAROLINA
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 CAR @ PIT 5 - 1
Mar 18, 2026 PIT @ CAR 5 - 6
Mar 10, 2026 PIT @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 30, 2025 CAR @ PIT 1 - 5
Jan 5, 2025 PIT @ CAR 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +18.3% more
Carolina: 5.5 vs Pittsburgh: 4.5
Power Play % (L5) +18.0%
Carolina: 20.5% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Carolina: 53.1% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 5.0 5
PIT Score 6.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
94%MONEY6%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CAR
PIT
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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