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COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

45-13-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 12:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

35-27-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 1.96 0.909 --
Logan Thompson None-None 2.95 0.875 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.96 Ldr GAA 2.95
0.909 Ldr Save % 0.875
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
AVALANCHE --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
AvalancheCOL (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Avalanche Cover

6.7%

Capitals Cover

93.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

COL By 1 goal

2.8%

COL By 2-3 goals

1.2%

WSH By 1 goal

12.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
COLORADO
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
COLORADO
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 2
Jan 19, 2026 WSH @ COL 2 - 5
Nov 21, 2024 COL @ WSH 2 - 1
Nov 15, 2024 WSH @ COL 5 - 2
Feb 13, 2024 COL @ WSH 6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +70.4% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Colorado: 9.8
Power Play % (L5) +13.4%
Washington: 13.9% vs Colorado: 0.6%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.4%
Colorado: 53.4% vs Washington: 50.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 1.0 3
WSH Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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