Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Revolutionaries @ Lobos GW @ UNM

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

19-15  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 8:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

24-10  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
📊
LOBOS
0%
REVOLUTIONARIES --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (New Mexico)
RevolutionariesGW (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Revolutionaries Cover

8.1%

Lobos Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

GW By 1-7 points

5.8%

GW By 8-14 points

1.4%

UNM By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNM By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
74
GEORGE WASHINGTON
88
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
69
GEORGE WASHINGTON
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lobos (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 GW @ UNM 61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.4% more
New Mexico: 9.5 vs George Washington: 7.1
Assists (L5) +9.1% more
New Mexico: 17.7 vs George Washington: 16.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
New Mexico: 47.2% vs George Washington: 44.9%
Turnovers (L5) +37.3% more
George Washington: 13.7 vs New Mexico: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GW Score 74.0 61
UNM Score 88.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 35.8 41.0 / 31.0
Assists 17.7 / 16.2 19.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.3 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 44.9 48.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 71.0 65.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 36.2 45.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.5 / 7.1 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 13.7 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GW
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GW
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
GW
UNM
GW
ML
57% 21-16
63% 22-13
74% 25-9
60% 21-14
ATS
57% 21-16
69% 24-11
74% 25-9
60% 21-14
TTL
41% 15-22
60% 21-14
100% 34-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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