Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Golden Hurricane UNLV @ TLSA

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

18-16  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Reynolds Center
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

27-7  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
REBELS --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tulsa)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

46.0%

Golden Hurricane Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

UNLV By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNLV By 8-14 points

13.7%

TLSA By 1-7 points

26.2%

TLSA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
UNLV
73
TULSA
Simulated Score
72
UNLV
78
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 UNLV @ TLSA 66 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.2% more
Tulsa: 7.9 vs UNLV: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +20.7% more
Tulsa: 41.9 vs UNLV: 34.7
Free Throw % (L5) +17.9%
Tulsa: 75.5% vs UNLV: 57.6%
Blocks (L5) +59.3% more
UNLV: 7.0 vs Tulsa: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 72.0 66
TLSA Score 73.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 41.2 36.0 / 23.0
Assists 14.4 / 14.5 16.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.8 / 7.0 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.6 / 48.6 47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 57.6 59.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 34.7 49.0 / 23.0
Steals 7.9 / 5.6 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 15.6 15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UNLV
TLSA
UNLV
ML
66% 25-13
50% 17-17
64% 23-13
59% 20-14
ATS
74% 28-10
65% 22-12
64% 23-13
59% 20-14
TTL
58% 22-16
62% 21-13
100% 36-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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