ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
21-12 | Road
78
WAKE FOREST
DEMON DEACONSWAKE
18-16 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
DEMON DEACONS
0%
REDBIRDS
--
DEMON DEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WAKE FOREST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Wake Forest)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAKE -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAKE)
ILST By 1-7 points
20.1%
ILST By 8-14 points
9.3%
WAKE By 1-7 points
27.4%
WAKE By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
74
ILLINOIS STATE
Wake Forest
78
WAKE FOREST
Simulated Score
Illinois State
65
ILLINOIS STATE
Wake Forest
78
WAKE FOREST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demon Deacons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Demon Deacons (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Demon Deacons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
ILST @ WAKE
78 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.9% more
Wake Forest: 4.0
vs
Illinois State: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+26.4% more
Wake Forest: 11.2
vs
Illinois State: 8.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.9%
Wake Forest: 83.0%
vs
Illinois State: 72.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Wake Forest: 46.2%
vs
Illinois State: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
74.0
78
WAKE Score
78.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 33.0
31.0 / 30.0
Assists
14.6 / 14.5
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.0 / 2.5
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 42.2
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
83.0 / 72.1
67.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 34.3
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.7 / 5.8
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 8.9
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
WAKE
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
WAKE
16-18-1
(47.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
ILST
WAKE
ILST
ML
49%
17-18
42%
15-21
61%
20-13
71%
24-10
ATS
66%
23-12
58%
21-15
61%
20-13
71%
24-10
TTL
60%
21-14
58%
21-15
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
