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IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

22-12  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

27-7  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
📊
GATORS
0%
HAWKEYES --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Florida)
HawkeyesIOWA (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawkeyes Cover

18.4%

Gators Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

IOWA By 1-7 points

12.2%

IOWA By 8-14 points

4.0%

FLA By 1-7 points

24.3%

FLA By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
75
IOWA
84
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
72
IOWA
78
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gators Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gators Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gators (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Gators (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 IOWA @ FLA 73 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +352.9% more
Florida: 5.5 vs Iowa: 1.2
Assists (L5) +60.2% more
Florida: 20.1 vs Iowa: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +52.5% more
Florida: 47.0 vs Iowa: 30.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.9% more
Florida: 11.0 vs Iowa: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 75.0 73
FLA Score 84.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 35.1 32.0 / 29.0
Assists 20.1 / 12.6 18.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.6 / 44.8 50.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 75.8 74.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 30.8 27.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.7 / 5.6 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 9.8 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
FLA
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
IOWA
FLA
IOWA
ML
77% 27-8
59% 22-15
63% 22-13
78% 28-8
ATS
69% 24-11
76% 28-9
63% 22-13
78% 28-8
TTL
63% 22-13
57% 21-16
100% 35-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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