TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
23-11 | Road
79
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
30-5 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
VOLUNTEERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
TENN By 1-7 points
26.2%
TENN By 8-14 points
25.3%
UVA By 1-7 points
15.3%
UVA By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
79
TENNESSEE
Virginia
72
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Tennessee
64
TENNESSEE
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
TENN @ UVA
79 - 72
Nov 21, 2024
UVA @ TENN
42 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.6% more
Tennessee: 6.1
vs
Virginia: 4.6
Assists (L5)
+16.3% more
Tennessee: 16.0
vs
Virginia: 13.4
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Tennessee: 41.9
vs
Virginia: 36.2
Blocks (L5)
+122.5% more
Virginia: 7.5
vs
Tennessee: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TENN Score
79.0
79
UVA Score
72.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 33.1
34.0 / 42.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.0
12.0 / 20.0
Blocks
7.5 / 3.4
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 46.0
39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
87.9 / 67.9
55.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 41.9
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.1
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 11.0
7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
UVA
Advantage
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
TENN
UVA
TENN
ML
67%
24-12
46%
17-20
72%
26-10
64%
21-12
ATS
75%
27-9
54%
20-17
72%
26-10
64%
21-12
TTL
53%
19-17
76%
28-9
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
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