KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
22-13 | Road
63
IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
28-7 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
CYCLONES
100%
WILDCATS
--
CYCLONES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ISU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
UK By 1-7 points
27.4%
UK By 8-14 points
21.6%
ISU By 1-7 points
20.1%
ISU By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
64
KENTUCKY
Iowa State
60
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
Kentucky
73
KENTUCKY
Iowa State
77
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cyclones
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cyclones (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Cyclones (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
UK @ ISU
63 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.5% more
Kentucky: 6.7
vs
Iowa State: 2.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Kentucky: 74.9%
vs
Iowa State: 66.3%
Steals (L5)
+34.7% more
Iowa State: 9.1
vs
Kentucky: 6.8
Assists (L5)
+12.7% more
Iowa State: 17.9
vs
Kentucky: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
64.0
63
ISU Score
60.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.5 / 30.9
32.0 / 36.0
Assists
17.9 / 15.9
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.9 / 6.7
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 46.1
46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 74.9
71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 34.8
31.0 / 30.0
Steals
9.1 / 6.8
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.4
7.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
UK
ISU
UK
ML
57%
21-16
71%
25-10
76%
26-8
72%
23-9
ATS
62%
23-14
83%
29-6
76%
26-8
72%
23-9
TTL
54%
20-17
63%
22-13
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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