MIAMI
HEATMIA
38-32 | Road
122
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
42-27 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
ROCKETS
0%
HEAT
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIA By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
9.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.4%
HOU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
124
MIAMI
Houston
128
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
122 - 123
Feb 28, 2026
HOU @ MIA
105 - 115
Mar 21, 2025
HOU @ MIA
102 - 98
Dec 29, 2024
MIA @ HOU
104 - 100
Apr 5, 2024
MIA @ HOU
119 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.9% more
Houston: 9.5
vs
Miami: 6.8
Turnovers (L5)
+39.7% more
Houston: 17.4
vs
Miami: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+25.8% more
Houston: 4.2
vs
Miami: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Houston: 46.2
vs
Miami: 42.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
124.0
122
HOU Score
128.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 30.0
46.0 / 39.0
Assists
27.1 / 28.3
33.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 46.5
52.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 81.5
81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 42.6
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.8
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 12.4
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIA
HOU
MIA
ML
61%
69-44
48%
46-50
59%
51-35
59%
48-34
ATS
62%
70-43
51%
49-47
59%
51-35
59%
48-34
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
57-39
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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