MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
24-45 | Road
101
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
36-34 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
HORNETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
MEM By 1-7 points
12.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
4.0%
CHA By 1-7 points
24.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
106
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Memphis
107
MEMPHIS
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MEM @ CHA
101 - 124
Jan 28, 2026
CHA @ MEM
112 - 97
Oct 15, 2025
MEM @ CHA
116 - 145
Apr 8, 2025
MEM @ CHA
124 - 100
Jan 22, 2025
CHA @ MEM
120 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.3% more
Charlotte: 16.6
vs
Memphis: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Charlotte: 43.6
vs
Memphis: 38.7
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Charlotte: 26.8
vs
Memphis: 24.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Charlotte: 41.8%
vs
Memphis: 34.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
106.0
101
CHA Score
115.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 34.5
42.0 / 35.0
Assists
26.8 / 24.6
25.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 45.1
53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
84.9 / 79.4
67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 38.7
49.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.9 / 9.3
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 12.4
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MEM
CHA
MEM
ML
61%
60-39
57%
59-44
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
ATS
60%
59-40
63%
65-38
48%
40-44
50%
41-41
TTL
58%
57-42
70%
71-31-1
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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