CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
43-27 | Road
111
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
25-46 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
PELICANS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
255.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
CLE By 1-7 points
15.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
5.8%
NO By 1-7 points
26.2%
NO By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
124
CLEVELAND
New Orleans
131
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
102
CLEVELAND
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pelicans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pelicans (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pelicans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o239.0
Loss
Proj Total: 255.0
D
Sim
u239.0
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
CLE @ NO
111 - 106
Dec 23, 2025
NO @ CLE
118 - 141
Nov 20, 2024
NO @ CLE
100 - 128
Nov 6, 2024
CLE @ NO
131 - 122
Mar 13, 2024
CLE @ NO
116 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.2% more
New Orleans: 9.9
vs
Cleveland: 7.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.5% more
New Orleans: 15.7
vs
Cleveland: 12.8
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
New Orleans: 5.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.7%
New Orleans: 80.7%
vs
Cleveland: 71.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
124.0
111
NO Score
131.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 36.4
30.0 / 31.0
Assists
25.6 / 27.6
30.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.9
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 48.4
43.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 71.0
80.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
44.6 / 46.5
40.0 / 55.0
Steals
9.9 / 7.2
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 12.8
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CLE
NO
CLE
ML
62%
98-61
60%
69-46
58%
48-35
56%
55-44
ATS
68%
107-51-1
67%
75-37-3
58%
48-35
56%
55-44
TTL
75%
119-40
59%
68-47
100%
83-0
100%
99-0
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