Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Wizards OKC @ WSH

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

55-15  |  Road

132
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 5:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-53  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
THUNDER --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

8.1%

Wizards Cover

91.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

OKC By 1-7 points

16.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

5.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
100
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
125
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.0 Loss
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 OKC @ WSH 132 - 111
Oct 30, 2025 WSH @ OKC 108 - 127
Jan 12, 2025 OKC @ WSH 136 - 95
Dec 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 105 - 123
Feb 23, 2024 WSH @ OKC 106 - 147
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +50.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.5 vs Washington: 5.7
Rebounding (L5) +18.9% more
Oklahoma City: 45.4 vs Washington: 36.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.2%
Oklahoma City: 82.5% vs Washington: 74.3%
Blocks (L5) +37.0% more
Washington: 6.3 vs Oklahoma City: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 114.0 132
WSH Score 100.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 35.4 41.0 / 37.0
Assists 22.3 / 24.1 28.0 / 31.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.6 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.5 45.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 82.5 72.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 45.4 34.0 / 55.0
Steals 5.7 / 11.5 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 13.2 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
OKC
WSH
OKC
ML
70% 112-49
70% 80-34
47% 39-44
48% 46-49
ATS
69% 111-49-1
73% 83-30-1
47% 39-44
48% 46-49
TTL
74% 119-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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