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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

42-21-4  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Place
View Odds Details →

EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

34-27-9  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Jake Walman
GOALTENDER

Jake Walman

#96 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.963 --
Jake Walman None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 GAA --
0.963 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
📊
OILERS
0%
LIGHTNING --
OILERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Edmonton)
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 OilersEDM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Oilers Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

TB By 1 goal

12.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

9.3%

EDM By 1 goal

19.7%

EDM By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oilers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Oilers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oilers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Oilers (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 TB @ EDM 5 - 2
Nov 20, 2025 EDM @ TB 1 - 2
Feb 25, 2025 EDM @ TB 1 - 4
Dec 10, 2024 TB @ EDM 1 - 2
Dec 14, 2023 TB @ EDM 7 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +17.9% more
Edmonton: 5.3 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Hits (L5) +15.4% more
Edmonton: 23.6 vs Tampa Bay: 20.5
Faceoff % (L5) +7.6%
Edmonton: 57.4% vs Tampa Bay: 49.8%
Blocked Shots (L5) +29.3% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9 vs Edmonton: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 5
EDM Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
TB
EDM
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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