Home / NHL Projections NHL / Bruins @ Red Wings BOS @ DET

BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

38-23-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

38-23-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 2.00 0.955 --
John Gibson None-None 3.12 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.12
0.955 Ldr Save % 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
RED WINGS
0%
BRUINS --
RED WINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 Red WingsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Red Wings Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DET By 1 goal

19.7%

DET By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BOSTON
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
2
BOSTON
4
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wings (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Red Wings (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 2
Jan 13, 2026 DET @ BOS 0 - 3
Dec 2, 2025 BOS @ DET 4 - 5
Nov 29, 2025 DET @ BOS 2 - 3
Mar 29, 2025 BOS @ DET 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +45.0% more
Detroit: 6.5 vs Boston: 4.5
Power Play % (L5) +22.8%
Detroit: 24.3% vs Boston: 1.5%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.8% more
Detroit: 25.1 vs Boston: 22.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +30.3% more
Boston: 18.6 vs Detroit: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.0 4
DET Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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