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WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

28-29-11  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 1:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

34-18-16  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 3.69 0.875 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 3.69 0.840 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.69 GAA 3.69
0.875 Ldr Save % 0.840
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
PENGUINS
0%
JETS --
PENGUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
JetsWPG (-3.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

2.3%

Penguins Cover

97.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

WPG By 1 goal

0.9%

WPG By 2-3 goals

0.3%

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
1
WINNIPEG
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
2
WINNIPEG
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Penguins (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 WPG @ PIT 3 - 2
Mar 21, 2026 WPG @ PIT 4 - 5
Nov 1, 2025 PIT @ WPG 2 - 5
Nov 22, 2024 WPG @ PIT 4 - 1
Oct 20, 2024 PIT @ WPG 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +83.5% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Winnipeg: 16.6
Hits (L5) +20.7% more
Pittsburgh: 20.1 vs Winnipeg: 16.7
Power Play % (L5) +1.6%
Pittsburgh: 2.5% vs Winnipeg: 0.9%
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.5% more
Winnipeg: 14.9 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WPG Score 1.0 4
PIT Score 5.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
46%MONEY54%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WPG
PIT
WPG
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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