Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Seahawks DAY @ UNCW

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

24-11  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

27-6  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
FLYERS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

46.0%

Seahawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

DAY By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

13.7%

UNCW By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNCW By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
76
DAYTON
77
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
75
DAYTON
68
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seahawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seahawks (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 DAY @ UNCW 80 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +36.1% more
UNC Wilmington: 43.2 vs Dayton: 31.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.5% more
UNC Wilmington: 10.2 vs Dayton: 8.7
Assists (L5) +8.4% more
UNC Wilmington: 14.6 vs Dayton: 13.5
Blocks (L5) +32.2% more
Dayton: 2.9 vs UNC Wilmington: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 76.0 80
UNCW Score 77.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 39.6 14.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.5 7.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.9 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 44.8 42.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 60.2 / 73.7 63.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 31.8 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.5 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.7 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
DAY
UNCW
DAY
ML
64% 21-12
65% 24-13
52% 17-16
64% 23-13
ATS
58% 19-14
68% 25-12
52% 17-16
64% 23-13
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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