LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
26-7 | Road
63
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
23-12 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
FLAMES
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
LIB By 1-7 points
20.1%
LIB By 8-14 points
9.3%
NEV By 1-7 points
27.4%
NEV By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Liberty
75
LIBERTY
Nevada
79
NEVADA
Simulated Score
Liberty
68
LIBERTY
Nevada
76
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
LIB @ NEV
63 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.1% more
Nevada: 8.0
vs
Liberty: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+30.3% more
Nevada: 10.0
vs
Liberty: 7.7
Rebounding (L5)
+27.1% more
Nevada: 37.1
vs
Liberty: 29.2
Blocks (L5)
+17.2% more
Liberty: 3.2
vs
Nevada: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LIB Score
75.0
63
NEV Score
79.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.2 / 35.7
24.0 / 23.0
Assists
16.0 / 16.5
18.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 47.9
46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 76.9
95.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 29.2
42.0 / 23.0
Steals
8.0 / 5.7
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 7.7
10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
LIB
NEV
LIB
ML
62%
23-14
50%
17-17
73%
27-10
53%
18-16
ATS
73%
27-10
62%
21-13
73%
27-10
53%
18-16
TTL
49%
18-19
41%
14-20
100%
37-0
100%
34-0
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