TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
20-14 | Road
74
GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
31-3 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
LONGHORNS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Gonzaga)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
TEX By 1-7 points
20.1%
TEX By 8-14 points
9.3%
GONZ By 1-7 points
27.4%
GONZ By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
68
TEXAS
Gonzaga
72
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
Texas
72
TEXAS
Gonzaga
78
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
TEX @ GONZ
74 - 68
Nov 16, 2022
GONZ @ TEX
74 - 93
Nov 13, 2021
TEX @ GONZ
74 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+50.5% more
Gonzaga: 18.4
vs
Texas: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+22.0% more
Gonzaga: 6.3
vs
Texas: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
Gonzaga: 78.5%
vs
Texas: 67.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Gonzaga: 45.9%
vs
Texas: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
68.0
74
GONZ Score
72.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.5 / 34.5
25.0 / 33.0
Assists
18.4 / 12.2
21.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.5
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 42.7
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 67.9
83.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 38.5
34.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.2
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 10.7
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
GONZ
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
TEX
GONZ
TEX
ML
71%
25-10
58%
21-15
69%
20-9
56%
19-15
ATS
69%
24-11
56%
20-16
69%
20-9
56%
19-15
TTL
57%
20-15
64%
23-13
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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