Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Spartans LOU @ MSU

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

24-10  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 2:45 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

26-7  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
CARDINALS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Michigan State)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

8.1%

Spartans Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)

LOU By 1-7 points

5.8%

LOU By 8-14 points

1.4%

MSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

MSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
LOUISVILLE
85
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
LOUISVILLE
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 LOU @ MSU 69 - 77
Dec 1, 2021 LOU @ MSU 64 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +38.6% more
Michigan State: 21.5 vs Louisville: 15.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.9%
Michigan State: 82.5% vs Louisville: 67.6%
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
Michigan State: 4.1 vs Louisville: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Michigan State: 43.2% vs Louisville: 38.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 71.0 69
MSU Score 85.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 38.6 42.0 / 35.0
Assists 21.5 / 15.5 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 49.4 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 67.6 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 35.8 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 14.7 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
LOU
MSU
LOU
ML
71% 25-10
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
ATS
71% 25-10
71% 25-10
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
TTL
49% 17-18
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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