TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
39-29 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
42-28 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
RAPTORS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
TOR By 1-7 points
13.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
4.8%
DEN By 1-7 points
25.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
121
TORONTO
Denver
129
DENVER
Simulated Score
Toronto
104
TORONTO
Denver
116
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.5
Loss
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
TOR @ DEN
115 - 121
Dec 31, 2025
DEN @ TOR
106 - 103
Oct 6, 2025
DEN @ TOR
112 - 108
Nov 4, 2024
TOR @ DEN
119 - 121
Oct 28, 2024
DEN @ TOR
127 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.0% more
Denver: 32.7
vs
Toronto: 27.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Denver: 46.5
vs
Toronto: 42.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Denver: 39.9%
vs
Toronto: 37.5%
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Toronto: 8.0
vs
Denver: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
121.0
115
DEN Score
129.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.9 / 37.5
47.0 / 32.0
Assists
32.7 / 27.5
26.0 / 32.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.9
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 51.0
54.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
77.9 / 81.0
76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
46.5 / 42.9
38.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.0
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 14.1
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
TOR
DEN
TOR
ML
54%
57-48
55%
57-47
55%
47-39
55%
48-39
ATS
63%
65-38-2
61%
62-40-2
55%
47-39
55%
48-39
TTL
54%
56-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
86-0
100%
87-0
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