BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
46-23 | Road
117
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
24-44 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
CELTICS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+12.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
BOS By 1-7 points
20.1%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
8.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
122
BOSTON
Memphis
110
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+15)
Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.0
Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u231.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
BOS @ MEM
117 - 112
Nov 12, 2025
MEM @ BOS
95 - 131
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ MEM
121 - 103
Mar 31, 2025
BOS @ MEM
117 - 103
Dec 7, 2024
MEM @ BOS
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.8% more
Boston: 46.5
vs
Memphis: 40.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.6%
Boston: 90.7%
vs
Memphis: 78.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Boston: 46.3%
vs
Memphis: 44.1%
Blocks (L5)
+108.4% more
Memphis: 6.0
vs
Boston: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
122.0
117
MEM Score
110.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 35.7
33.0 / 26.0
Assists
24.8 / 25.7
24.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.0 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 46.3
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 90.7
82.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 46.5
35.0 / 57.0
Steals
10.5 / 8.5
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 14.1
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
BOS
MEM
BOS
ML
57%
59-44
57%
61-46
50%
41-41
53%
47-41
ATS
63%
65-38
59%
61-43-3
50%
41-41
53%
47-41
TTL
70%
71-31-1
56%
60-47
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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