ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
38-31 | Road
95
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
41-27 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
HAWKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
12.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
119
ATLANTA
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u227.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.4% more
Atlanta: 31.9
vs
Houston: 24.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
Atlanta: 38.3%
vs
Houston: 28.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Atlanta: 49.5%
vs
Houston: 47.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+27.3% more
Houston: 16.1
vs
Atlanta: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
119.0
95
HOU Score
110.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 38.3
47.0 / 26.0
Assists
24.1 / 31.9
33.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.5
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 49.5
51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 76.7
68.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
43.7 / 47.0
51.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.8 / 9.0
11.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 12.6
20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
61%
69-44
50%
52-52
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
70-43
53%
55-48-1
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
TTL
51%
58-55
53%
55-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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