LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
44-25 | Road
134
MIAMI
HEATMIA
38-31 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
HEAT
0%
LAKERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
259.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
LAL By 1-7 points
15.3%
LAL By 8-14 points
5.8%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
126
LOS ANGELES
Miami
133
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
110
LOS ANGELES
Miami
122
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o241.5
Win
Proj Total: 259.0
D
Sim
u241.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
LAL @ MIA
134 - 126
Nov 2, 2025
MIA @ LAL
120 - 130
Jan 15, 2025
MIA @ LAL
108 - 117
Dec 4, 2024
LAL @ MIA
93 - 134
Jan 3, 2024
MIA @ LAL
110 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+14.7% more
Miami: 43.3
vs
Los Angeles: 37.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Miami: 81.2%
vs
Los Angeles: 71.3%
Blocks (L5)
+22.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.1
vs
Miami: 4.0
Steals (L5)
+10.1% more
Los Angeles: 9.1
vs
Miami: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
126.0
134
MIA Score
133.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 37.6
32.0 / 44.0
Assists
27.0 / 26.8
31.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 52.9
51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
81.2 / 71.3
82.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 37.8
41.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.2 / 9.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.1
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAL
MIA
LAL
ML
48%
46-50
61%
68-43
59%
48-34
54%
49-42
ATS
51%
49-47
61%
67-43-1
59%
48-34
54%
49-42
TTL
59%
57-39
61%
66-43-2
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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