Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Cavaliers WRST @ UVA

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

23-11  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Mar 20 • 1:50 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

29-5  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
RAIDERS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Virginia)
RaidersWRST (-3.5) 0 CavaliersUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

46.0%

Cavaliers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

WRST By 1-7 points

24.3%

WRST By 8-14 points

13.7%

UVA By 1-7 points

26.2%

UVA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
WRIGHT STATE
75
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
57
WRIGHT STATE
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 WRST @ UVA 73 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +109.5% more
Virginia: 8.8 vs Wright State: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +12.3%
Virginia: 85.4% vs Wright State: 73.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Virginia: 37.6% vs Wright State: 34.6%
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Wright State: 6.2 vs Virginia: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WRST Score 74.0 73
UVA Score 75.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 34.6 50.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.1 / 13.6 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 8.8 / 4.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 48.8 52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 85.4 / 73.0 93.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 37.1 39.0 / 24.0
Steals 4.9 / 6.2 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.6 14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
UVA
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
WRST
UVA
WRST
ML
67% 24-12
37% 13-22
72% 26-10
63% 22-13
ATS
75% 27-9
46% 16-19
72% 26-10
63% 22-13
TTL
53% 19-17
63% 22-13
100% 36-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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