Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Wildcats SCU @ UK

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

26-8  |  Road

84
FINAL
Fri, Mar 20 • 12:15 PM ET
Enterprise Center
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

21-13  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BRONCOS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BroncosSCU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

42.1%

Wildcats Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UK +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

SCU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SCU By 8-14 points

18.6%

UK By 1-7 points

23.0%

UK By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
SANTA CLARA
74
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
70
SANTA CLARA
85
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 SCU @ UK 84 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +10.4% more
Santa Clara: 35.8 vs Kentucky: 32.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Santa Clara: 35.5% vs Kentucky: 28.3%
Blocks (L5) +90.4% more
Kentucky: 4.6 vs Santa Clara: 2.4
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Kentucky: 10.1 vs Santa Clara: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCU Score 76.0 84
UK Score 74.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 35.5 36.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.6 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.4 11.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 43.3 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 72.4 71.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 35.8 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.4 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 8.1 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
UK
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
SCU
UK
SCU
ML
71% 25-10
44% 15-19
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
ATS
83% 29-6
53% 18-16
72% 23-9
74% 23-8
TTL
63% 22-13
47% 16-18
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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