Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Wildcats USU @ VILL

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

28-6  |  Road

86
FINAL
Fri, Mar 20 • 4:10 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

24-8  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
AGGIES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Utah State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

75.8%

Wildcats Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-7 points

26.2%

USU By 8-14 points

25.3%

VILL By 1-7 points

15.3%

VILL By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UTAH STATE
66
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
70
UTAH STATE
75
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 USU @ VILL 86 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.1% more
Utah State: 2.7 vs Villanova: 1.8
Steals (L5) +26.3% more
Utah State: 8.9 vs Villanova: 6.5
Rebounding (L5) +15.5% more
Utah State: 34.2 vs Villanova: 28.9
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Utah State: 46.5% vs Villanova: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 73.0 86
VILL Score 66.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 30.4 47.0 / 13.0
Assists 16.8 / 16.8 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.7 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 46.5 44.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 65.9 46.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 34.2 27.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.9 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.1 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
VILL
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
USU
VILL
USU
ML
44% 14-18
49% 17-18
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
ATS
56% 18-14
74% 26-9
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
TTL
41% 13-19
51% 18-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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