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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

41-21-4  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Rogers Arena
View Odds Details →

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

21-38-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Kevin Lankinen
GOALTENDER

Kevin Lankinen

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.905 --
Kevin Lankinen None-None 6.00 0.806 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 6.00
0.905 Ldr Save % 0.806
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
CANUCKS
100%
LIGHTNING --
CANUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 CanucksVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Canucks Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around VAN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

VAN By 1 goal

12.1%

VAN By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
VANCOUVER
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
4
VANCOUVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canucks Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canucks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Canucks (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 TB @ VAN 6 - 2
Nov 16, 2025 VAN @ TB 6 - 2
Dec 8, 2024 TB @ VAN 4 - 2
Oct 15, 2024 VAN @ TB 1 - 4
Dec 12, 2023 TB @ VAN 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.4%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Vancouver: 2.0%
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.1% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Vancouver: 25.2
Hits (L5) +12.1% more
Tampa Bay: 24.7 vs Vancouver: 21.7
Takeaways (L5) +57.5% more
Vancouver: 5.8 vs Tampa Bay: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 6
VAN Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
61%MONEY39%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
TB
VAN
TB
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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