Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Grizzlies DEN @ MEM

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

42-27  |  Road

118
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 8:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-44  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
NUGGETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

27.4%

Grizzlies Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DEN By 1-7 points

26.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

24.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

16.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
120
DENVER
114
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
103
DENVER
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+13) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u247.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim u247.5 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 MEM @ DEN 119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026 DEN @ MEM 118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026 MEM @ DEN 116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025 DEN @ MEM 125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025 MEM @ DEN 109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +21.3% more
Denver: 46.8 vs Memphis: 36.8
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
Denver: 32.1 vs Memphis: 26.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Denver: 41.8% vs Memphis: 36.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Denver: 49.1% vs Memphis: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 120.0 118
MEM Score 114.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 41.8 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 26.3 / 32.1 22.0 / 34.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.2 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 49.1 43.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.3 / 78.3 78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 46.8 48.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.8 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 13.3 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DEN
MEM
DEN
ML
57% 59-44
54% 57-48
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
ATS
63% 65-38
63% 65-38-2
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
TTL
70% 71-31-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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