Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Pacers POR @ IND

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

33-36  |  Road

127
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

15-54  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

42.1%

Pacers Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

POR By 1-7 points

26.8%

POR By 8-14 points

18.6%

IND By 1-7 points

23.0%

IND By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
127
PORTLAND
125
INDIANA
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
122
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.5 Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 POR @ IND 127 - 119
Mar 8, 2026 IND @ POR 111 - 131
Feb 4, 2025 IND @ POR 89 - 112
Nov 27, 2024 POR @ IND 114 - 121
Jan 19, 2024 IND @ POR 115 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.4% more
Portland: 6.9 vs Indiana: 5.3
Steals (L5) +23.1% more
Portland: 8.4 vs Indiana: 6.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Portland: 19.0 vs Indiana: 16.1
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Portland: 46.3 vs Indiana: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 127.0 127
IND Score 125.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 37.0 44.0 / 35.0
Assists 29.1 / 28.1 32.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.3 / 6.9 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.6 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 74.8 88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 46.3 39.0 / 52.0
Steals 6.5 / 8.4 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 19.0 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
POR
IND
POR
ML
48% 47-50
53% 56-49
54% 45-38
55% 49-40
ATS
59% 57-40
62% 65-39-1
54% 45-38
55% 49-40
TTL
54% 52-45
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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