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TEXAS A&M

AGGIESTA&M

21-11  |  Road

63
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 7:35 PM ET
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SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

27-5  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
GAELS
100%
AGGIES --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas A&M)
AggiesTA&M (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

61.8%

Gaels Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TA&M -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-7 points

27.2%

TA&M By 8-14 points

20.1%

SMC By 1-7 points

21.6%

SMC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
TEXAS A&M
63
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
TEXAS A&M
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 TA&M @ SMC 63 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.7% more
Texas A&M: 8.2 vs Saint Mary's: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +59.8% more
Saint Mary's: 4.3 vs Texas A&M: 2.7
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
Saint Mary's: 14.5 vs Texas A&M: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +13.3%
Saint Mary's: 80.4% vs Texas A&M: 67.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 66.0 63
SMC Score 63.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 31.4 43.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.8 8.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 41.1 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 80.4 / 67.0 36.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 37.5 32.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.4 / 8.2 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 9.5 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.6
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +2.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
TA&M
SMC
TA&M
ML
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
82% 23-5
54% 15-13
ATS
62% 20-12
67% 20-10
83% 24-5
54% 15-13
TTL
53% 17-15
70% 21-9
100% 29-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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