TROY
TROJANSTROY
22-11 | Road
47
NEBRASKA
CORNHUSKERSNEB
26-6 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
CORNHUSKERS
100%
TROJANS
--
CORNHUSKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)
TROY By 1-7 points
26.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
16.9%
NEB By 1-7 points
24.3%
NEB By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
77
TROY
Nebraska
76
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
Troy
65
TROY
Nebraska
72
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cornhuskers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cornhuskers (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Cornhuskers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
TROY @ NEB
47 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.5% more
Troy: 3.6
vs
Nebraska: 1.7
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
Troy: 13.3
vs
Nebraska: 11.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Troy: 36.9
vs
Nebraska: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.0%
Troy: 74.8%
vs
Nebraska: 62.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
77.0
47
NEB Score
76.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 28.0
36.0 / 29.0
Assists
16.3 / 15.5
20.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.7 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 49.1
43.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
62.8 / 74.8
100.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 36.9
37.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.3
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 13.3
6.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
NEB
Advantage
28-7-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
NEB
Advantage
19-15-1
(55.9%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
TROY
NEB
TROY
ML
51%
18-17
59%
20-14
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
ATS
54%
19-16
65%
22-12
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
TTL
63%
22-13
56%
19-15
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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