Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Buckeyes TCU @ OSU

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

22-11  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 12:15 PM ET
Bon Secours Wellness Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

21-12  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
📊
BUCKEYES
0%
HORNED FROGS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ohio State)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

42.1%

Buckeyes Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

TCU By 1-7 points

23.0%

TCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

OSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

OSU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TCU
81
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
72
TCU
75
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buckeyes (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 TCU @ OSU 66 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Ohio State: 49.6% vs TCU: 43.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Ohio State: 39.1% vs TCU: 33.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Ohio State: 78.0% vs TCU: 72.3%
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
TCU: 4.0 vs Ohio State: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 79.0 66
OSU Score 81.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 33.4 26.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.4 / 14.3 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 43.7 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 72.3 91.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 28.2 / 37.7 32.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.2 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.2 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
TCU
OSU
TCU
ML
53% 18-16
74% 26-9
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
ATS
59% 20-14
74% 26-9
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
TTL
56% 19-15
66% 23-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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