Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Cardinals USF @ LOU

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

25-8  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 1:30 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

23-10  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
BULLS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (South Florida)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

86.4%

Cardinals Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-7 points

21.6%

USF By 8-14 points

27.4%

LOU By 1-7 points

9.3%

LOU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
80
SOUTH FLORIDA
69
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
74
SOUTH FLORIDA
64
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulls (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 USF @ LOU 79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.1% more
South Florida: 10.2 vs Louisville: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +20.4% more
South Florida: 41.7 vs Louisville: 33.2
Assists (L5) +10.1% more
South Florida: 16.4 vs Louisville: 14.8
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
South Florida: 76.2% vs Louisville: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 80.0 79
LOU Score 69.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 32.7 52.0 / 15.0
Assists 14.8 / 16.4 17.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 42.1 54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 76.2 56.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 41.7 41.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.5 / 10.2 5.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 9.8 22.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
USF
LOU
USF
ML
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
52% 16-15
ATS
71% 25-10
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
52% 16-15
TTL
63% 22-13
52% 17-16
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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