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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

54-15  |  Road

121
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

17-51  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NETS
100%
THUNDER --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

98.2%

Nets Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

6.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

BKN By 1-7 points

1.4%

BKN By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
116
OKLAHOMA CITY
95
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Nets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u214.5 Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u214.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 OKC @ BKN 121 - 92
Feb 20, 2026 BKN @ OKC 86 - 105
Feb 26, 2025 OKC @ BKN 129 - 121
Jan 19, 2025 BKN @ OKC 101 - 127
Jan 5, 2024 OKC @ BKN 115 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.7% more
Oklahoma City: 45.6 vs Brooklyn: 41.2
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Oklahoma City: 85.3% vs Brooklyn: 77.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Oklahoma City: 44.8% vs Brooklyn: 41.2%
Turnovers (L5) +75.5% more
Brooklyn: 18.0 vs Oklahoma City: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 116.0 121
BKN Score 95.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 33.1 31.0 / 40.0
Assists 21.5 / 23.2 17.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.2 / 44.8 37.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 85.3 74.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 45.6 41.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.6 / 9.3 8.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 10.3 23.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
BKN
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
OKC
BKN
OKC
ML
53% 50-45
70% 80-34
59% 48-34
48% 46-49
ATS
52% 48-44-3
73% 83-30-1
59% 48-34
48% 46-49
TTL
57% 54-41
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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