ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
37-31 | Road
135
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
23-46 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
HAWKS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
ATL By 1-7 points
25.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.2%
DAL By 1-7 points
13.7%
DAL By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
126
ATLANTA
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
113
ATLANTA
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.0
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u238.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
ATL @ DAL
135 - 120
Mar 10, 2026
DAL @ ATL
112 - 124
Apr 2, 2025
ATL @ DAL
118 - 120
Nov 25, 2024
DAL @ ATL
129 - 119
Apr 4, 2024
ATL @ DAL
95 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Atlanta: 47.3%
vs
Dallas: 45.7%
Blocks (L5)
+10.8% more
Dallas: 4.2
vs
Atlanta: 3.8
Turnovers (L5)
+8.9% more
Dallas: 14.6
vs
Atlanta: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
126.0
135
DAL Score
118.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 37.5
39.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.1 / 29.9
26.0 / 36.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 47.3
49.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 75.5
86.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 49.5
43.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.5
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 13.4
19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ATL
DAL
ATL
ML
62%
63-39
50%
52-52
54%
44-37
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
68-34
53%
55-48-1
54%
44-37
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
60-41-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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