Home / NBA Projections NBA / Clippers @ Pelicans LAC @ NO

LA

CLIPPERSLAC

34-34  |  Road

109
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

23-46  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
CLIPPERS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
CLIPPERS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (LA)
ClippersLAC (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clippers Cover

94.5%

Pelicans Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-7 points

13.7%

LAC By 8-14 points

24.3%

NO By 1-7 points

4.0%

NO By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
121
LA
105
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
LA
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Clippers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Clippers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 LAC @ NO 99 - 105
Mar 18, 2026 LAC @ NO 109 - 124
Mar 1, 2026 NO @ LAC 117 - 137
Oct 31, 2025 NO @ LAC 124 - 126
Apr 2, 2025 NO @ LAC 98 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.2% more
LA: 11.4 vs New Orleans: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
LA: 77.6% vs New Orleans: 72.6%
Rebounding (L5) +32.4% more
New Orleans: 50.2 vs LA: 37.9
Blocks (L5) +22.5% more
New Orleans: 7.8 vs LA: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 121.0 109
NO Score 105.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 36.3 43.0 / 29.0
Assists 25.8 / 24.6 32.0 / 24.0
Blocks 7.8 / 6.4 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 49.2 53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 72.6 / 77.6 95.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 50.2 / 37.9 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 11.4 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 11.7 19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC Advantage
42-41-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
42-41-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
41-42-0
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +2.2
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LAC
NO
LAC
ML
62% 98-61
60% 59-40
58% 48-35
55% 45-37
ATS
68% 107-51-1
66% 65-33-1
58% 48-35
55% 45-37
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 58-40-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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