Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Rockets LAL @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

43-25  |  Road

124
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

41-26  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
LAKERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

69.1%

Rockets Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

23.0%

HOU By 1-7 points

18.6%

HOU By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
110
LOS ANGELES
105
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u222.5 Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim u222.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.8% more
Los Angeles: 10.7 vs Houston: 8.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
Los Angeles: 32.9% vs Houston: 26.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Los Angeles: 75.4% vs Houston: 70.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Los Angeles: 48.8% vs Houston: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 110.0 124
HOU Score 105.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.1 / 32.9 34.0 / 47.0
Assists 23.2 / 25.2 26.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.2 / 3.7 1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 48.8 49.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 75.4 88.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 39.7 38.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.1 / 10.7 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 18.1 / 12.6 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAL
HOU
LAL
ML
61% 69-44
61% 68-43
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
ATS
62% 70-43
61% 67-43-1
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
TTL
51% 58-55
61% 66-43-2
100% 86-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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