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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

34-23-9  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:30 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

33-27-8  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.08 0.913 --
Logan Thompson None-None 1.00 0.971 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.08 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.913 Save % Ldr 0.971
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
SENATORS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

OTT By 1 goal

12.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
OTTAWA
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 OTT @ WSH 1 - 4
Jan 1, 2026 WSH @ OTT 3 - 4
Oct 25, 2025 OTT @ WSH 7 - 1
Mar 3, 2025 OTT @ WSH 4 - 5
Jan 30, 2025 WSH @ OTT 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +36.4% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Ottawa: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.2% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Ottawa: 24.3
Power Play % (L5) +49.6%
Ottawa: 63.5% vs Washington: 13.9%
Hits (L5) +21.7% more
Ottawa: 26.6 vs Washington: 20.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.0 1
WSH Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
21%MONEY79%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
OTT
WSH
OTT
ML
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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